Reflexive Positioning Framework

Reflexive positioning identifies crowding, asymmetry, and fragility — key for deciding exposure size and risk weighting in portfolios.

To identify when market positioning and narrative begin reinforcing price action, amplifying trends beyond fundamentals.

Markets do not just reflect beliefs. They shape them. When positioning becomes crowded, price moves feed back into conviction, increasing fragility.

• Commitments of Traders and positioning data
• Volatility measures (implied vs realised)
• Price momentum across related assets
• Shifts in dominant market narratives

• Crowded positioning increases sensitivity to small catalysts
• Reflexive phases tend to persist until positioning is forced to unwind
• The most important signals appear when narrative, positioning, and price align

• Asymmetry between upside and downside reactions
• Volatility staying low despite growing consensus
• Narrative confidence rising faster than underlying data

• Positioning remains extreme without price follow-through
• Narratives reverse without any meaningful market response